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Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East of Suez routes. The Middle East LRs are under considerable pressure, mainly due to the lack of demand. The new 2017 flat rates have created a sort of confusion, which has eventually concluded most of the fixtures on basis PLATTS. However, over the past week, we heard a rumor on TC1 ex MEG to Japan loading min 75,000T at WS 112.5 (about 30WS points down) basis WS 2017. Moreover, distillate deliveries to UK continent traded at $1.9m levels (dropped around $150k) In the meantime, LR1 seems to have bottomed out due to a long tonnage list and a lack of activity which resulted in TC5 WS115 for min 55,000T from MEG to Japan at $1.175m, which translates to $100k less from the previous week for deliveries to UK continent respectively.

On the contrary, MR activity, was not as disappointing and remained quite flexible over the week. Cross MEG cargoes were fixed around low $200k levels, whereas MEG routes to East Africa destinations moved up at around WS190. WCI naphtha lifts to Japan rated at WS165 basis 35,000T and the deliveries to UK continent at very low $1.0m, which looks to be quite stable.

Looking towards the Far East region over the past weeks, we witnessed a softening of the market and a decline in fresh enquires for MR sizes. With S. Korea loading to Singapore destination ending the week at $.385k. Levels (around $15k less than prior weeks). The South Asia market is also getting weaker, which results in tonnage availability becoming more ample and enabling us to comment that the near future does not look bright.

Moving on to the West of Suez regions things are not as exciting as expected as, even though activity was decent enough on paper, the ARA/Transatlantic traded at WS165 levels, basis 37,000T (about 30WS points down from previous fixtures), a number of ballasters from US regions sailed to Europe. This allowed charterers to eventually push rates down and ARA lifts basis 37,000T to West Africa rated at WS180 respectively. Oversupply of tonnage put some pressure on Handies as well. Ice conditions eventually offered some premiums, thus fixtures were concluded at WS180 basis 30,000T ex Baltic to UK Continent. In the Black Sea/Med market, owners managed to reach just shy of WS200 levels, mainly due to weather conditions which caused delays and the Cross Med, ended  up at WS175 basis 30,000T.

At the time of this writing, LR owners seem to be getting some much-needed relief, with the recent level of activity keeping the market alive. The LR2 ex ARA to Singapore is at around $2.0m levels and the typical naphtha from Mediterranean to Japan is hovering at about low $2.0m. In the meantime, LR1 is enjoying steady demand coupled with healthy tonnage availability, which has resulted in an increase to ex-UK continent to West Africa at around WS150 basis min 60,000T. ARA to South Asia traded at around $1.65m to $1.70m levels and the usual naphtha has elevated ex Mediterranean ports to Japan at around $1.83m levels respectively, while owners keep asking for higher premiums (about $80k to $100k) due to a poor Asia market.

To conclude, our expectations remain fairly low as far the Eastern Market is concerned when comparing it with the Western Market. The distillates arbitrage from Far East to West does not seem to be helping enough and, as we approach the Chinese New Year, the lack of balance between supply and demand signals a further delayed recovery. The year of the Rooster leaves us with no option other than to hold tight and brace ourselves for a truly challenging market.
By George Vastardis
Tanker Chartering Broker - CPP Desk
 
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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