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Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
 COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze power producers' margins in 2017, says Fitch Ratings. Margins are also expected to suffer as more electricity is sold under direct power sales (DPS) programmes at a discount to the benchmark on-grid tariff as well as from falling plant utilisation levels.
China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on 4 January 2017 that the benchmark on-grid tariff for coal-fired power will remain unchanged in 2017, despite a strong coal price rally starting from 3Q16.
Fitch further noted that, China introduced a coal price pass-through mechanism in early 2016, which specifies that coal-fired power generators' on-grid tariff will be reviewed at the start of each year to reflect coal price changes in the previous year. In this week's announcement, the NDRC further specified that the average NDRC national coal price index from November 2015 to October 2016 was used as reference to decide the tariff pass-through amount. According to the price formula, on-grid tariff should increase by CNY0.18 cents per kilowatt hour (KWh) to reflect the coal price change in that period. However, changes less than CNY0.2 cent/KWh will not be made, but will accumulate into the next review period.
Although the current Qinghuangdao seaborne coal price is already 15% lower than its peak in 2016 due to NDRC measures to increase coal supply and contain coal prices, it remains more than 30% higher than the average 2016 price as coal prices were much lower in 1H16. We expect coal prices to fall further with policy intervention; however, the average 2017 coal price, especially in 1H17, is likely to be higher than for the same period last year. As such, dark spread - the difference between power tariffs and unit coal costs - for coal-fired power generators will be lower than in 2015 and early-2016.
At the same time, Fitch said, power volumes sold under DPS are increasing. The NDRC reports that power sold under DPS increased to 700 billion KWh in 2016, up from 430 billion KWh in the previous year. This represents around 12% of China's total power demand or 17% of power demand from the energy-intensive secondary industry, which accounted for around 71% of the country's total power consumption in 2016. According to NDRC, the average discount on DPS is around CNY6.4 cent/KWh, which is around 18% of China's national average on-grid tariff.
However, Fitch estimates the discount for power sold under DPS is around 20% in regions with higher power demand and less competition, and 30% or higher in regions that suffer more from power overcapacity. Coal-fired power generators' dark spread is likely to be further squeezed as China aims to expand the scale of DPS in 2017.
We also expect coal-fired power utilisation hours to decline with slowing power demand growth and still-high capacity additions. We expect some smaller players are likely to be loss-making and forced out of the market, while large-scale and highly-efficient power generators or power-heat co-generation generators in regions with stable power demand or access to lower-cost coal will be final winners under these changes taking place in China electricity market, Fitch concluded.
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Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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