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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
 2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% sulphur cap on shipping emissions by 2020. This ruling applies to ships worldwide, and ships will have to ensure that the use of fuel oil on board meets the new sulphur content requirement. The current limit is set at 3.5% and shipowners will have more than 3 years to reduce the marine Sulphur usage by 7 times below current limits.
The Sulphur cap aims to provide a significant benefit to the environment and human health, particularly near port cities and coastal communities. Newer ships with advanced fuel options are being built, however older ships will have to choose between paying more for fuel and installing equipment to reduce emissions. Main engines, auxiliary engines and boilers are all considered areas of fuel usage on board ships.
Today, there are different blends of low sulphur fuel in different geographical locations and compatibility of these is still questioned. However, taking into account today’s bunker prices, using the low sulphur fuel poses a $200/tonne extra cost. The use of exhaust gas cleaning systems known as “Scrubbers” is the only solution for vessels to comply with gas emissions and allow them to continue using their normal fuel. Estimated cost of installing scrubbers on existing ships ranges from $ 1.3 million and can reach levels exceeding $ 3.0 million on larger and more demanding ships needing extensive funnel and steel modifications. Even so, scrubbers are not totally eco-friendly. Current systems involve either wet exhaust Vs dry exhaust or open loop vs closed loop technologies. In cases of closed loop and wet exhaust systems the collection of the particulates and the proper ecological disposal of same has to be addressed. This is another product that will have a disposal cost which, significant or not, still poses an additional running cost.
The biggest concern that may also be a game changer in our industry is that today and most likely by 2020 there is the possibility for existing refinery capacity proving inadequate to meet demand for clean fuel. Capacity is one question and geographical location is another. New refineries will need to be created with more capacity, also in more strategic locations and we see a major logistical undertaking for all links in the bunker supply chain. This need may impose new trade routes for product tankers and increased demand for these will benefit freight rates. Many countries say that 2020 is too soon and propose 2025 as a safer implementation date. However the decision of switching to more expensive fuel vs installing scrubbers is the result of the following formula; Daily Consumption X Extra $200/tonne X Years of projected operation of the vessel. If the ship has few years left until the end of its life, and if its second-hand price over its scrap price is marginally close to the cost of installing scrubbers then there is a greater possibility that she will be scrapped. This applies to all ship types and may lead to a mass exodus… towards the beaches. Supply of tonnage will be reduced giving freight rates a serious boost.
So in 2020, the 0.5% sulphur regulation together with the implementation of the Water Ballast Treatment convention will present two major costs that will dictate who goes to the beach and who is destined for more voyages ahead…!!!
“20/20 Vision” will be needed in our ship investments going forward with the pre-mentioned issues being the determining factor for the age of the asset one invests in today.
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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