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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
 2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% sulphur cap on shipping emissions by 2020. This ruling applies to ships worldwide, and ships will have to ensure that the use of fuel oil on board meets the new sulphur content requirement. The current limit is set at 3.5% and shipowners will have more than 3 years to reduce the marine Sulphur usage by 7 times below current limits.
The Sulphur cap aims to provide a significant benefit to the environment and human health, particularly near port cities and coastal communities. Newer ships with advanced fuel options are being built, however older ships will have to choose between paying more for fuel and installing equipment to reduce emissions. Main engines, auxiliary engines and boilers are all considered areas of fuel usage on board ships.
Today, there are different blends of low sulphur fuel in different geographical locations and compatibility of these is still questioned. However, taking into account today’s bunker prices, using the low sulphur fuel poses a $200/tonne extra cost. The use of exhaust gas cleaning systems known as “Scrubbers” is the only solution for vessels to comply with gas emissions and allow them to continue using their normal fuel. Estimated cost of installing scrubbers on existing ships ranges from $ 1.3 million and can reach levels exceeding $ 3.0 million on larger and more demanding ships needing extensive funnel and steel modifications. Even so, scrubbers are not totally eco-friendly. Current systems involve either wet exhaust Vs dry exhaust or open loop vs closed loop technologies. In cases of closed loop and wet exhaust systems the collection of the particulates and the proper ecological disposal of same has to be addressed. This is another product that will have a disposal cost which, significant or not, still poses an additional running cost.
The biggest concern that may also be a game changer in our industry is that today and most likely by 2020 there is the possibility for existing refinery capacity proving inadequate to meet demand for clean fuel. Capacity is one question and geographical location is another. New refineries will need to be created with more capacity, also in more strategic locations and we see a major logistical undertaking for all links in the bunker supply chain. This need may impose new trade routes for product tankers and increased demand for these will benefit freight rates. Many countries say that 2020 is too soon and propose 2025 as a safer implementation date. However the decision of switching to more expensive fuel vs installing scrubbers is the result of the following formula; Daily Consumption X Extra $200/tonne X Years of projected operation of the vessel. If the ship has few years left until the end of its life, and if its second-hand price over its scrap price is marginally close to the cost of installing scrubbers then there is a greater possibility that she will be scrapped. This applies to all ship types and may lead to a mass exodus… towards the beaches. Supply of tonnage will be reduced giving freight rates a serious boost.
So in 2020, the 0.5% sulphur regulation together with the implementation of the Water Ballast Treatment convention will present two major costs that will dictate who goes to the beach and who is destined for more voyages ahead…!!!
“20/20 Vision” will be needed in our ship investments going forward with the pre-mentioned issues being the determining factor for the age of the asset one invests in today.
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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