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Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
Allied2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically for assets across all size segments, says Allied in its latest weekly report.

Things have changed considerably since May when the market started to recover from its loss-making freight levels and created a fair rally in the secondhand market as buyers flocked to take advantage of the low prices, confident that no matter how long it would take for market fortunes to turn and bring back the bullish freight rates of the past, they would have taken on assets at price levels they viewed as highly competitive and would have little to risk. This rally being fast paced and being mainly driven by the low price while facing limited support yet from the freight markets, seemed to have run their course in early September, with both SnP volume and asset prices taking a temporary pause, said George Lazaridis.

Buyers, it seemed, were still concerned at what they could possibly face in the final quarter of the year, being still spooked by the trend they had witnessed in the final part of 2015 and first quarter of 2016. Things seemed to have taken a different route this time around, bringing back the seasonal strength typically seen during the autumn months of the year. At the same time there is now slightly more optimism around as to how well the market will tackle the slack in demand usually noted in and around the Chinese New Year Festivities, while many see a better market balance moving forward, feeling that demand now shows better prospects while the supply of tonnage has been limited fairly well while the orderbook from the second quarter of 2017 and onwards is comparably limited in number. This optimistic view is slowly translating into actual transactions, with recent sales showing a slowly gaining momentum both in terms of volume and prices being seen. There has also been a considerable pick-up in the number of interested parties shopping around and increased interest for inspecting vessels that are circulated in the market, said George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations of Allied Shipping.

According to George Lazaridis, the freight market may well be showing signs of heading for its downward corrective phase, with increased possibility that rates may well drop significantly over the next 2 months, but this is unlikely to deter buyers, given that their keen interest is not generated from a belief that freight rates are going to be at extraordinarily high levels within the final weeks of the year nor during the first months of 2017.

There is surely no delusion as to where we stand and no one expects that we are in the clear and it’s all smooth sailing from here on out. What most seem to feel is that for the time being we have seen the worst and that given that freight levels should improve somewhat compared to the levels noted during the course of the past 12 months, prices should therefore start to better reflect this improvement. Buyers, as such, are more likely to offer more for each vessel and feel more confident to outbid their competition even if it drives up prices compared to the levels we are seeing now.

The main thing still holding things back for the moment seems to be the difficulties being faced on the financing front, though given that there are still a number of buyers with “deep pockets”, they are likely to play more aggressively now in order to secure assets before prices increase by too much, while leaving to deal with financing options at a later stage, something which would in any case allow them to find better terms of financing once both freight rates and asset values have improved further.  


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