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Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have bottomed out in most commodity sectors, with stimulus measures supporting growth.

Chinese stimulus measures have supported fixed-asset investment, which in turn has improved prices for most commodities since the start of 2016. For 2017 Fitch expects fixed-asset investment in China to stabilise and forecast fixed investment growth of 4.4% in the same year (2016: 5.7%) which means that prices are unlikely to return to the 4Q15 levels.

In our view, Fitch says, the price trends for individual commodity sub-sectors in 2017 remain mixed. The strongest price outlook is for Nickel and Zinc, reflecting the expected physical supply deficits in these markets. Fitch expects iron ore prices to decline to reflect an oversupplied market, and for coal prices to retreat from current levels as mines reopen and production increases. For copper Fitch Ratings expects a large physical surplus in 2017, and although the majority of this will come on-stream in 1Q17 prices should improve throughout the year.

While most mining companies continue to have weak credit profiles for their current ratings, Fitch says, they see improvement in 2017, as they continue to focus on reducing debt. This will likely result in a revision of a number of Outlooks to Stable from Negative throughout the year.

For 2017, Fitch expects mining companies to mainly focus on operating cost savings, given less capacity for further cut capex. If prices strengthen, Fitch Says, they believe companies may be tempted to increase capex and exploration or restart/pay higher dividends.

Fitch also expect a reversal of the FX and oil price trends seen in the past one to two years.


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