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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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