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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
Fitch RatingsHigh inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before gradually moving higher over the next few years, Fitch Ratings says.

Fitch Ratings expects supply and demand to be broadly balanced in 1H17, with a move to a more pronounced deficit from 2H17. But the still-high commercial inventories may delay any significant price response. We have therefore maintained our base-case assumption, used when rating energy-sector corporates, that both Brent and WTI will average USD45/barrel in 2017. According to Fitch ratings, Fitch have also maintained their USD55/barrel assumption for 2018 and introduced a 2019 price expectation of USD60, reflecting our belief that it may take longer to fully return to our long-term equilibrium price of USD65/barrel.

But there is significant uncertainty about the future path of oil prices. Unprecedented capex cuts could translate into a far sharper fall in output than the consensus expectation, while there is also potential for demand growth to slow if economic growth disappoints or for supply to be higher than expected if US shale comes back strongly as prices rise, says Fitch in its latest report.

Our price assumptions, Fitch says, do not factor in any impact from a possible OPEC production cut agreement during its meeting scheduled for 30 November. This is because even if a deal is agreed, its ability to have a lasting impact on prices is unclear and will depend on the size of the cuts and the willingness of members to stick to them.

Fitch has also lowered some of their assumptions for UK National Balancing Point gas prices, a proxy for international spot gas. Fitch Ratings believes National Balancing Point prices will remain subdued for longer due to a medium-term oversupply of liquefied natural gas.


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Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...


Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...


Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...


Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...


Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...


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