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Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
FITCHChina's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and production capex (E&P) in 2015 and 2016 due to persistently low crude-oil prices, Fitch Ratings says in an Outlook report.

Fitch believes upstream production shrinkage could be steeper in 2017 than our forecast of a 6%-8% fall in 2016. The Big-Three national oil companies - China National Petroleum Corporation , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) (A+/Stable) and CNOOC Limited (A+/Stable) - may also revise down their reserves further.

Fitch believes Chinese oil & gas companies' ability to significantly improve free cash flow will be limited in 2017 - despite stabilising oil prices - in light of reinvestment needs aimed at reserve replacements, and at Fitch's assumption of an average oil price of USD45 per barrel in 2017. Falling domestic production can, however, further narrow the gap between the benchmark Brent price and the oil companies' realised oil prices; that gap had widened significantly in 2016, and materially affected their cash generation.

Margins for refining and chemical operations in 2017 are also likely to narrow, especially with oil prices having rebounded slightly since 2H16, though these sectors are likely to be more profitable than E&P for integrated companies, such as Sinopec and CNPC/PetroChina, at the assumed oil-price level.

Oilfield-services companies are likely to see an increase in domestic project volumes in 2017, though rates are unlikely to recover significantly; independents will be further plagued by prolonged receivable turnover.


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