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Thursday, 17 November 16
FROTHY THERMAL COAL PRICES POINT TO DOWNSIDE PRESSURES IN 2017 - FITCH
Fitch RatingFitch Ratings says in an Outlook Report that the Asian thermal coal industry will remain under pressure in 2017 due to more-than-adequate capacity and price adjustments that are likely to be downward. The strong pricing rebound since early 2016 is unlikely to be sustained as the Chinese government relaxes its working-day curtailment policies to manage prices.

According to Fitch, supply-demand dynamics remain on soft ground, as China eliminated only 152 million tonnes of excess capacity in 8M16, compared with 600 million tonnes of capacity seeking production approval and another 800 million tonnes under construction. Meanwhile, India is ramping up domestic supply aggressively to enhance energy security and reduce current account deficits, while domestic demand growth has been lacklustre.

Fitch further said, the Chinese government has relaxed its supply controls since September to prevent runaway coal prices from delaying capacity rationalisation. Recent policies reveal Beijing's wish to keep the 5,500kcal/kg coal prices below CNY460/tonne, versus CNY607/tonne as of end-October. Fitch believes the government has ample measures to curb prices, given sufficient capacity to serve stagnant demand. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar can also have a negative effect on import demand and seaborne prices in dollar terms.

Fitch says, Indonesian coal producers focusing on the export market are likely to suffer the most as their largest buyer - India - experiences weak thermal power generation, curbs coal imports, and increases utilisation of higher-rank Australian and South African coal.

The recent appreciation in thermal coal prices will prop up the operating cash generation of Asian coal producers; however, the price outlook remains uncertain and challenging, Fitch concluded.


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Recent News

Friday, 18 November 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.8 MMST, DOWN 0.8%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...


Thursday, 17 November 16
CHINA STEEL EXPORTS TO REMAIN HIGH IN 2017, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings expects Chinese steel exports to remain at around 100 million metric tons (Mt) in 2017, due to flat 'apparent' consumption an ...


Wednesday, 16 November 16
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Tuesday, 15 November 16
CHINA, FOR MANY YEARS NOW HAS SERVED AS A MAJOR GROWTH ENGINE FOR ASIA - ALLIED SHIPPING RESEARCH
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Monday, 14 November 16
KOMIPO'S SEOCHEON POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 240,000 MT OF SEMI / ANTHRACITE COAL FOR Q1'17
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