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Wednesday, 09 November 16
SUPRAMAX: 50% INCREASE ON AVERAGE SINCE THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
IntermodalLast week was an interesting one for the tanker market, which following the explosion of the gas pipeline in Alabama witnessed a spike in Atlantic basin rates, with a number of owners benefitting from that incident that resulted in firmer rates. However after the restoration of the damage, rates started to soften and steadily returned to before spike levels.

As far as the tanker SnP market is concerned though spikes and mini-booms have yet to be witnessed, as existing asset values have reinforced uncertainty among those who are contemplating to sell as well as perspective Buyers looking invest in preferably lower prices than those quoted at the moment. Hence, Buyers of in sizes and types are limited at the moment, moving mostly speculatively, and Sellers keep testing the SnP market to better assess the value of their respective vessels and eventually sell on a private basis, while newbuilding activity has seen a small increase lately as well.

On the other hand, dry bulk newbuilding activity remains almost non-existent, which is certainly not bad for the market that has been long suffering from oversupply, a problem that could finally get under control sometime towards the end of next year, a time by which most of the order book is scheduled for delivery. This expectations together with the much healthier rates the dry bulk market is witnessing now compared to six months back, has boosted SnP activity in the sector despite the fact that current earnings might not be justifying present asset values.

The recent steadying of Capesize rates has lured investments by a number of owners least expected to trade this size. The volatility Capesize prices have been historically displayed has rewarded again during the last bottoming of prices those ready to assume the risk of such an investment. Indicatively, Stealth Gas bought 2 Capes in Q1 (built in 2006 and 2008 respectively) for a total price of USD 23.5m and sold them in Q3 for USD 29.0m.

Supramax vessels are also enjoying a 50% increase on average since the first quarter of the year on the back of strong buying interest from the Far East and the Indian sub-Continent. More specifically, 15-yr old Supramax are experiencing a biggest asset appreciation compared to 5-yr and 10-yr old candidates, while Panamaxes are witnessing a much more modest increase, calculated at around 15% for 10-yr old vessels and 25% for 5-yr old ones.

Potential Buyers have also been displaying a lot of interest lately for Handysize vessels and more specifically in 5-yr old Chinese tonnage, which is currently being offered at around USD 6.0m, while as far as Japanese tonnage is concerned, the group of owners interested in investing here is much smaller and rather specific.

We do believe this firm SnP activity in bulkers to resume at least until the end of the year and an even healthier freight market should reinforce this momentum. But irrespective if earnings manage to move much higher before the end of the year, the fact that dry bulk rates seem to be resisting to wild volatility for quite some time now has helped sentiment to shift a lot since the dark days of last spring and we all know what an important role sentiment and positive psychology play even in a exceptionally demand/supply fundamentals driven industry like shipping.
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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