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COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, the international coal prices have started to rally with the speed which no one has forecasted earlier. Today the coal is the top attractive and the hottest commodity in the world.
The current coal prices go vertical day by day, repeating almost the 2008 coal market situation, continuing its rally. The producers were kept revising their coal prices upwards on a regular basis for Q1’17 deliveries.
While the end-users of coal are facing a tougher quarters, as prices continue to rise strongly. The coal buyers were almost panic to see the current price trends and trying to secure the coal for Q1’17 deliveries at least at this levels. Coal buyers dominated the market for at least the last five years, now the market is in hands of sellers.
According to CS (i) coal Index, the average CS 5000 GAR coal index (Indonesian origin) rose 5.56% week over week. In the meantime, the CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) weekly index was increased 6.98 % percent week-over-week this past week.
The CS (i) Coal index is newly established an independent coal benchmark forecast for Indonesian particular coal types. The CS (i) Coal indices are generated through a Technology aided system, based on COALspot’s own proprietary algorithm requiring minimal human involvement. Therefore, these can be considered as a set of highly transparent & realistic indices for the Indonesian coals of 5700, 5000, 4200 and 3800 GAR grades.
Technology Aided CS (i) Coal indices are produced in accordance with the strict, pre-defined and fully transparent methodology and delivered via COALspot.com’s online platform through the inputs provided by panelists comprising consumers, producers and traders of Indonesian coal on a real-time basis during Indonesian office hours.
The coal market has been oversupplied for years which dragged prices down. However, the recent move by the Chinese government, "for a reduction in the number of days domestic producers are allowed to operate (276 days annually), has indirectly contributed to greater imports which pushed the thermal coal prices upward since April this year. Many analysts expect thermal prices to keep gaining for the rest of this year and possibly into Q1 next year.
However, India the world’s third-largest coal producer, plan to increase annual coal production to about 1.5 billion tons in the next four years.
COALspot.com conducted a survey to study the market opinion on whether India will stop coal imports within next 2 to 3 years or not during 24 – 30 October 2016.
According to the COALspot’s weekly opinion poll, 33.58% of total participants (137) believe that, India “ Not likely at all” STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years. While, 32.85% of participants are in the opinion that, “Not very likely” India will stop, and 21.90% says “ Somewhat likely” and 11.68% believed India “ Very likely” stop coal imports within next 2 to 3 years.
The current coal price rally may come to an end if India successfully increases the coal output by double or triple within the next three to four years. The coal market will fall again under stressful condition If the coal demand fails to march along with speed of coal output.
The CS 42 (4200 GAR) Index increased by 7.12% week over week for the week ending October 28, while CS 38 Index which is representing 3800 GAR coal of Indonesian origin was rose 4.58%.
Year-On-Year (30 October 2015 – 28 October 2016)
CS 38 Coal Index up 31.45%
CS 42 Coal Index up 56.10%
CS 50 Coal Index up 54.69%
CS 57 Coal Index up 42.71%
Year-To-Date (8 Jan – 28 October 2016)
CS 38 Coal Index up 38.71%
CS 42 Coal Index up 57.42%
CS 50 Coal Index up 56.35%
CS 57 Coal Index up 46.19%
CS 38 - TM 40%, Ash 5% Max, Sulphur 0.4% Max and Calorific Value (GAR) 3,800 Kcal/kg
CS 42 - TM 35%, Ash 6% Max, Sulphur 0.8% Max and Calorific Value (GAR) 4,200Kcal/kg
CS 50 - TM 26%, Ash 7% Max, Sulphur 0.8% Max and Calorific Value (GAR) 5,000 Kcal/kg
CS 57 - TM 18%, Ash 12% Max, Sulphur 1.0% Max and Calorific Value (GAR) 5,700 Kcal/kg
(All parameters are in ARB basis)
CS (i) coal index is also publishing real-time and daily indices to use as a market reference. To access* the CS (i) coal index please click here (or send a mail to subscribe.cs @ coalspot.com).
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