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Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
 We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indications that hire rates would stabilize at viable levels, but after Q1 asset values rose. Now the shipping market is in a wait and see mode, still very uncertain in regards to whether this recent small spike will prove sustainable or not and of course how will it affect asset values going forward.
It's not that investors wish the market to get worse; it’s just that right now, prices do not reflect the absence of a substantial recovery in the freight market. In other words they don't really make sense, at least to most people.
Q1 was clearly the bottom as far as values are concerned, but that lead to increased demand for modern tonnage, a trend that eventually boosted prices all the way throughout the beginning of Q4. Ship owners simply did what they do best. They invested in a low market.
During the first 3 quarters of the year, Handysize and Supramax vessels were the crowd favorites with the total number of transactions reaching 109 and 95 respectively, while Capes were trailing third with 75 deals. All in all at the end of September, a total of 465 transactions of bulk carriers were reported as being concluded.
As the buyer pool now seems to be getting smaller, we can help but wonder how SnP activity will be affected during the weeks leading to the end of the year. It seems that the shipping industry is mostly focusing on what 2017 will bring and there many people out there quite optimistic. The reason for this rare burst of optimism is based on a number of factors.
Starting with the newbuilding contracting so far we are counting only 47 contracts, with 30 of those vessels being the Valemaxes ordered by Chinese interests. We were at a 9-year low up until September. Additionally we have the Water Ballast Treatment regulations coming into effect as of next year, which will most definitely have an impact on the fleet and eventually freight rates. Owners will have to decide if they will speed up the Special Survey, prepare to install WBT or scrap the respective vessels.
Speaking about scrapping, 2015 and the first half of 2016 where very active followed by a slower H2. Now, if in addition to the new WBT regulation no further substantial recovery is witnessed in the freight market during H1 2017, demolition activity will normally remain robust throughout the summer months of 2017 and prior to the deadline of the implementation in early September. Given that there are approximately 57 million dwt (856 vessels) that are older than 20 years this does not seem too farfetched.
So from one hand there are no clear signs that the charter market will pick up, but there are factors that could or should limit the supply of tonnage. Well yes, in this assumption there is a lot of wishfully thinking, but bear with me for a second. All of the above is a combination of facts and speculation but they could eventually put a dent in the size of the fleet. In a way, it seems that 2017 is probably the first year that there are a few reasons to believe that the fleet will start to stabilize. Given the fact that that Owners and shipping in general have demonstrated remarkable resilience in this market it is not that illogical to hope or even believe that the next year could end up better even than expected.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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