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Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
 We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indications that hire rates would stabilize at viable levels, but after Q1 asset values rose. Now the shipping market is in a wait and see mode, still very uncertain in regards to whether this recent small spike will prove sustainable or not and of course how will it affect asset values going forward.
It's not that investors wish the market to get worse; it’s just that right now, prices do not reflect the absence of a substantial recovery in the freight market. In other words they don't really make sense, at least to most people.
Q1 was clearly the bottom as far as values are concerned, but that lead to increased demand for modern tonnage, a trend that eventually boosted prices all the way throughout the beginning of Q4. Ship owners simply did what they do best. They invested in a low market.
During the first 3 quarters of the year, Handysize and Supramax vessels were the crowd favorites with the total number of transactions reaching 109 and 95 respectively, while Capes were trailing third with 75 deals. All in all at the end of September, a total of 465 transactions of bulk carriers were reported as being concluded.
As the buyer pool now seems to be getting smaller, we can help but wonder how SnP activity will be affected during the weeks leading to the end of the year. It seems that the shipping industry is mostly focusing on what 2017 will bring and there many people out there quite optimistic. The reason for this rare burst of optimism is based on a number of factors.
Starting with the newbuilding contracting so far we are counting only 47 contracts, with 30 of those vessels being the Valemaxes ordered by Chinese interests. We were at a 9-year low up until September. Additionally we have the Water Ballast Treatment regulations coming into effect as of next year, which will most definitely have an impact on the fleet and eventually freight rates. Owners will have to decide if they will speed up the Special Survey, prepare to install WBT or scrap the respective vessels.
Speaking about scrapping, 2015 and the first half of 2016 where very active followed by a slower H2. Now, if in addition to the new WBT regulation no further substantial recovery is witnessed in the freight market during H1 2017, demolition activity will normally remain robust throughout the summer months of 2017 and prior to the deadline of the implementation in early September. Given that there are approximately 57 million dwt (856 vessels) that are older than 20 years this does not seem too farfetched.
So from one hand there are no clear signs that the charter market will pick up, but there are factors that could or should limit the supply of tonnage. Well yes, in this assumption there is a lot of wishfully thinking, but bear with me for a second. All of the above is a combination of facts and speculation but they could eventually put a dent in the size of the fleet. In a way, it seems that 2017 is probably the first year that there are a few reasons to believe that the fleet will start to stabilize. Given the fact that that Owners and shipping in general have demonstrated remarkable resilience in this market it is not that illogical to hope or even believe that the next year could end up better even than expected.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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