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Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
Allied LogoOPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders.  As we moved closer to the day of the meeting its seems that the oil bulls were running rampant, driving prices for crude to levels that top just above the US$ 50 per barrel mark, said Allied ship broker in its latest weekly report.

According to Allied weekly report, the great paradox however was to be seen just moments after the much anticipated announcement of a cut in production, at which point we started to see prices are off slowly as many started to slowly  voice concerns as to the impact this agreement would really have on the market and more specifically if it would actually be able to alter the oil imbalance now faced.

The Allied’s George Lazaridis further said, the truth of the matter is that  we were seeing record production figures up until recently  and an only 6 percent cut in OPEC ’s contribution does not sound like a lot being done, especially  given the increased capacities expected to  continue to be seen out of Iran and Libya.  At  the same time, this decision comes at a point where U.S. shale  producers have  started to greater vigour and have managed to  push their output even at this year ’s  low crude oil prices. What’s stopping them from increasing production further to the extent of covering any gap left behind by OPEC members.

Allied research further noted that, all this has at the moment left few convinced that there  will be a real turnaround in the market over the coming months. It is no surprise therefore that we hearing officials from Russia saying that they plan to stick to a budget that assumes oil averages at a price of around US$ 40 a barrel. That also seems to  be the consensus amongst most major investment banks which see the commodity struggling to hold firmly at prices above that level for long periods of time. On top of all of this many even see the agreement amongst OPEC members as  little more than “hot air”,  voicing concerns as to its effectiveness given the fact that as an organization it has often failed to meet targets, especially those that related to curbing production output.

George Lazaridis , Head  of Market Research &  Asset Valuations of Allied says, it seems as though the  “cat has been let out of the bag ” and it’s proving an ever more  difficult case to get it back in.  It has  been more  than 22  months since  the  original  decision to  fully  open the  production taps and producing nations have already shifted in some  way  or another in order to  face  the  new reality  this has brought along with it.  It has also  shown how the  Saudis have  under estimated the resilience of the  high  prices producers (and in particular that o f U.S. shale oil ) having managed to  price  cut out of the  market only a small fraction.  Let’s not forget that the  main purpose  of their original strategy  was to  gain market share and eliminate some of the competition in order to end up with bigger control over the market.  The only  production projects that have truly  bee n hit by  the drop in price s has been the  deep water offshore  projects, most o f which found the  new price  reality  unbearable.

There is still a lot at play here, but  for now, it looks as though we are still set to remain hovering around these most recent price levels for the medium  term.  For most in shipping this can be  seen as good news, helping keep bunker costs on the lower end of the spectrum and all owing a healthier demand level  for the transportation of crude  oil for the  large tanker.  There  are  however some, notably  those  with  the more  modern eco-ships which would have  hoped for slightly  higher increases in oil prices, something that would surely help to make these  more  economical  ships more competitive in the  market and possibly  even create  a greater push for older vessels to  be scrapped sooner rather than later said Allied a Piraeus based ship broker.


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