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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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