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Wednesday, 21 September 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
IntermodalAmidst a challenging dry bulk and tanker market, very little time has been spent on the offshore industry developments during the past couple of years. The harsh reality is that offshore owners have been dealing with equally bad and sometimes even worse conditions that those owners in the more conventional sectors have been facing.

Since the second half of 2014 and up until today, offshore owners have witnessed a very depressed and volatile market, while as the majority of industry specialists all around keeps stressing that the market is due to face at least another couple of difficult years before things start to improve, sentiment remains very fragile.

The key factor behind this depressed and volatile offshore marker has without a doubt been the continuous decrease in the crude oil price, which primarily happened for two reasons. On one hand there was/is the over-supply in production/stock combined with decreased demand for crude oil in Europe, China and a number of developing economies. The second reason is the lack of a common strategic approach between OPEC and non-OPEC countries that has consistently been weighing down on crude oil prices since 2014. In fact, from the level of $115/bbl in June 2014, prices reached $35/bbl in February 2016 and have currently settled at around $46/bbl. Irrespectively of how optimistic someone is, the above is certainly evidence that unless very specific and collective action on behalf of major producers takes place, prices will need sufficient time in order to reach again levels closer to $100/bbl.

The current lows have led major oil and gas companies to significant losses, with the majority of them trying to alter their strategic approach and to minimize their investments with respect to production and exploration. Global investment in production and exploration has in fact fallen from $700 billion in 2014 to around $580 billion in 2015, while a decrease of at least 20% is expected this year. The end of 2016 will also mark the first time that the offshore industry witnesses three years of continuous decrease in investment production.

The cost/investment downsize approach that oil companies are undertaking, is directly affecting oil workers and companies owning OSV (Offshore Supply Vessels) that provide services in re-supply functions and towage or rescue services to offshore drilling platforms. As expected, in the current state of the market, oversupply poses a major issue in both the Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) as well as the Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) fleet, while taking into account the new-building vessels that will be delivered in the remainder of 2016 as well as during next year, we expect excess supply to keep weighing down on the market for longer. Having identified the specific issue, big offshore groups like MAERSK for example, which own the specific vessels types, have announced that they will recycle, modify or sell to non-Oil and Gas owners in order to minimize the help tackle the issue.

This over-supply in the offshore market has resulted in both modern and older offshore vessels being offered for sale in very attractive prices compared to previous years but also with respect to the price these were built, creating without a doubt asset play opportunities for those willing to risk a prolonged  - possible beyond 2018 - market downturn.

By Panos Makrinos
Offshore Director

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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