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Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
 What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these characteristics. Although trying to predict the market is never easy, digging into the fundamentals, along with the behavioral aspects that drive it, is probably the only way to go.
On one side there is the bear. There is no other factor more important than the actual demand for the physical commodity and its growth prospects have fallen behind expectations, as EIA’s data forecast the average price of Brent blend at $42/bbl for the current year and at $52/bbl for 2017. These numbers suggest that, despite its current short-term fluctuations between $40 and $50, crude oil market is in contango in the long-term. But the crucial factors that not only back-up these statements but also play their own role in dragging down the oil prices do not stop there. Add to the mix the excessive inventory building in both shore and floating tanks and the lower refinery margins and it would appear that the glut is here and is here to stay. Or is it?
On the other side there is the bull. Surprisingly, at the same time that the world’s biggest oil producer followed by Iran, Iraq and other OPEC members are pumping at historical record rates, the markets rallied from approximately $40 to almost $49 for an approximate 20% flat price increase in 7 trading days within August! Rational? No! Did it happen? It most certainly did! The lesson to be learned here is that even though the fundamentals may suggest a softening market, it only takes one statement from OPEC’s leading member to reverse the whole sentiment. “The situation will be discussed” said Saudi Arabia’s current minister and the markets obeyed.
To freeze or not to freeze? That is the million dollar question that the much anticipated OPEC meeting needs to answer for the markets to stabilize. However, it has already been proven that the statements of the cartel’s members are not always consistent with their actions and in this irrational market actions may not speak louder than words as record pumping rates firm the oil market instead of softening it!
But the uncertainty about the future does not stop at the primary crude oil market since the derivative oil product market closely follows its steps. An examination of the inventories in gasoline and diesel as benchmarks of the clean oil products across Europe, Asia and the USA reveals that these markets are also in contango. As a result, prices are pressured down with a direct impact to lower tanker rates for almost all the clean tanker segment. Furthermore, regional spreads that create arbitrage trading opportunities are diminishing, leading to lower rates for regional short-haul voyages performed by small tankers.
The most profound conclusion of the above is uncertainty in expectations, which results in volatility in both crude and product markets. These features are depicted in tanker rates, as the adverse conditions that exist in the oil markets surely enough spill over into the tanker markets. Thus, without owning the magic crystal ball, it would most probably be naïve to try to make a prediction about the future under current conditions. This situation may be a playground for oil traders who thrive on volatility, but a headache for tanker shipowners who may be called to tackle with another recession and try to ride the cycle one more time.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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