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Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
 Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) lower than in July 2015.
According to short-term energy outlook of EIA, In 2016, coal production is expected to decrease by 163 MMst (18%), which would be the largest decline in terms of both tons and percentage since at least 1949.
EIA further noted in its short-term energy outlook, In 2016, forecast coal production in the Appalachian region and in the Western region declines by 20%, while Interior region production declines by 11%. In 2017, total U.S. coal production is expected to increase by 32 MMst (4%), with almost all of the increase coming from the Appalachian region and the Interior region. Coal in these two regions has the advantage of lower transportation costs and a higher heat content compared with Western region coal.
According to the most recent data, electric power sector coal stockpiles were 196 MMst in May, virtually unchanged from April. The end-of-May coal stocks were 22 MMst (13%) higher than the May 2015 level and 26 MMst (15%) higher than the previous 10-year average for the month. Warmer-than-normal winter temperatures and coal's continuing loss of market share to natural gas for electric power generation contributed to the increase in coal stockpiles. EIA expects that coal stockpiles will decrease over the summer, and inventories will end 2016 at 156 MMst.
Coal Consumption
Commenting on U.S’s coal consumption, EIA says, coal consumption in the electric power sector, which accounts for more than 90% of total U.S. coal consumption, is forecast to decline by 64 MMst (9%) in 2016. The decline is a result of both competition with low-priced natural gas and relatively mild weather in the first half of 2016 that reduced overall electricity generation. Retirements of coal-fired power plants reduce coal-fired generation capacity in the forecast period, primarily in 2016. The retirements are the result of increased competition with natural gas generation and the industry response to the implementation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). Coal consumption in the electric power sector is forecast to increase by 17 MMst (3%) in 2017, mostly because of rising natural gas prices coupled with increasing electricity generation.
Coal Trade
U.S’s coal exports of 4.2 MMst in May 2016 were less than 1 MMst (8%) lower than the previous month, but they were almost 3 MMst (38%) lower than the amount exported in May 2015. EIA forecasts U.S. coal exports to decline by 19 MMst (25%) in 2016 to 55 MMst, the lowest level in 10 years. Exports are expected to decline by 4 MMst (8%) in 2017.
Atlantic and Gulf Coast power generators are forecast to maintain their current levels of coal imports, which are primarily from Latin America. Imports are projected to be roughly 11 MMst in both 2016 and 2017.
Coal Prices
EIA estimates that the delivered coal price to electric utilities averaged $2.23/MMBtu in 2015. Forecast prices are $2.19/MMBtu in 2016 and $2.24/MMBtu in 2017. According to EIA's estimated delivered coal price to power plant in 2017 would be higher than 2015 delivered price of $2.23/MMBtu.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
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