We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
 The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect that Brexit will have on local and global economies. However, as the dust settles following the referendum, market experts, industry analysts and businesses are assessing the position with cooler heads and so, whilst certainty may be a little way off, more concrete predictions and assertions of intent are beginning to emerge. This is evident daily in commentary and news from the shipping and sea trade sector.
Global impact
The international shipping market is fuelled by trade, which in turn depends on the health of the global economy. The Brexit vote landed at a time when the shipping market, particularly in certain sectors like bulk freight, was already extremely challenging. The factors which have contributed to dry bulk freight rates heading towards all-time lows in Q1 2016 reflect long term issues which would have persisted whatever the referendum result. These factors include oversupply of ships and the effect on global trade of the rebalancing of the Chinese economy following the boom of the last decade.
Sea trade in and out of the UK accounts for only a very small fraction of global shipping activity and therefore an isolated post-Brexit slowdown in the UK economy may be unlikely to impact dramatically on global freight volumes. This is reflected in some of the bullish reaction we have seen from industry players in recent weeks. Euronav’s chief executive was quoted in Lloyd’s List as saying, on a conference call for analysts: “It should be largely speaking something of a non-event in terms of impact on global trade for crude oil.” For companies with income denominated in US Dollars, which will be the case for many international shipping companies, it could be temporarily beneficial, particularly if costs are in euros and sterling. Others comment that potential constraints in available finance, arising from the Brexit vote, may contribute to a longer term upturn in the market, in terms of helping address the current oversupply of vessels.
However, not all commentators are as optimistic. Whilst there seems generally to be agreement that the Brexit vote alone will not be hugely impactful on world trade, the consequences could be amplified when combined with other matters currently playing themselves out on the world stage. Tradewinds reported this week that Wells Fargo analyst Michael Webber, who covers shipping stocks for the bank, said that the combination of the rise of Donald Trump as the Republican nominee to the White House, the Brexit vote, uncertainty around Italy’s banks and the coup attempt in Turkey could create “meaningful tail risk” for crude demand expectations in the second half of the year. If this prediction is accurate, it is likely to impact on demand for tanker shipping services and therefore freight rates.
The shipping industry, particularly the dry bulk and container sectors, is facing other macro threats to its existence in the longer term, which are completely unrelated to the Brexit vote. The rise of the digital economy and more widespread use of technology in logistics (for example drone deliveries) and the consumer sector (for example 3D printing) may impact on the longterm need for the same volume of goods to be carried by sea.
UK impact
UK trade will clearly be impacted by the Brexit vote. We saw an immediate effect on currency and share prices, although there are signs that the market is settling down after the initial post-vote furore. In terms of longer term impact, there are some matters which are already tolerably clear, for example that any changes to the cost of trade with the EU are likely to affect freight volumes at British ports. However, the precise nature and extent of the effect on UK trade will depend entirely on the form of relationship which is ultimately agreed both with the EU and with other trading partners. With the new British Prime Minister, Theresa May, looking to defer triggering Article 50 until 2017, that form of relationship remains pretty ‘uncertain’.
There are wider potential outcomes for shipping in the UK beyond the direct effect on trade volumes. In terms of the UK offshore industry, for example, Tradewinds reported recently that “when news of the UK’s decision to exit the EU hit the offshore sector, most analysts agreed that the longer-term damage for the sector would be from a possible slowdown in the world’s economy. However, some warned the immediate and near-term effect would be that oil companies would obviously put the brakes on much-needed investment in the UK. The UK continental shelf (UKCS) is already suffering from record low investment — at one-eighth the value of the annual average over the past five years — and the nation’s oil-and-gas sector is on course to have lost up to 140,000 jobs by the end of this year.”
There is also the UK’s position as a leading provider of maritime professional services to consider. The marine insurance industry is pushing hard to maintain the passporting rights currently enjoyed between EU member states, although whether this will be possible without full access to the single market (and the associated EU requirements for free movement of workers) is set to be the key topic in negotiations.
In terms of other professional services, such as legal and shipbroking services, there is some speculation that UK’s so called “stability premium” may have been affected by the vote. However, the UK’s long maritime history, the reputation of its courts (which rely on an extremely well established body of specialist case law) and institutions and the number of highly qualified individuals resident in the UK working in the sector should help ameliorate any effect on this premium at least whilst Brexit is negotiated. However, even if the premium remains intact the professional services sector may be rightly concerned about how services are dealt with in negotiating future trade deals. Such agreements traditionally focus on trade in goods and therefore may not be as advantageous to the services sector.
Conclusion
The global shipping market is experiencing challenging times, mainly due to factors which were set in train long before the brexit vote. However, the shipping industry is used to market cycles and draws resilience from the fact that global trade cannot function without international shipping. Regional issues like the Brexit vote certainly have the power to impact the market, but if ultimately they are not significant enough to affect global supply and demand for physical goods and commodities, they are unlikely to prove more than a drop in the ocean in terms of their individual impact on the global shipping market.
The impact of the vote is bound to be felt more locally, in the UK and European shipping industry. Particular markets, such as the UK offshore market and the UK marine professional services market, will be watching the negotiations unfold very carefully in order to evaluate both the issues and also the opportunities that brexit creates for them depending on the future structure of relations both between the UK and the EU and the UK and the rest of the world.
Source: Eversheds International | Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
|
|
|
Showing 2341 to 2345 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
