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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 05 August 16
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE REMAINING AT DEPRESSING LEVELS DUE TO LACK OF FRESH CARGOES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week has been one of the slowest for some time with rates under pressure in most areas.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES ARE STARTING TO ZOOM HIGHER; HBA ROSE 10.13% TO US$ 58.37 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since August 2015.
The Director General of Mineral and Coa ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
RECAAP INFORMATION SHARING CENTRE ISSUES SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ABDUCTING OF CREW FROM SHIPS IN WATERS OFF EASTERN SABAH AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the light of three incidents where the crew of tug boats were abducted in the waters off Eastern Sabah and Southern Ph ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its glob ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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