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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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