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Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
SGXCOALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, respectively, as higher oil prices and domestic production restrictions in China have proved supportive of pricing, says SGX in its Commodities Mid-Year Reflections report.

According to SGX, the results of their survey indicate over three-quarters of respondents expect Chinese coal imports to either remain flat or decline in H2 2016 (relative to H1 2016). A majority of respondents believe seaborne coking coal prices have already bottomed this year, while it is also expected that domestic Chinese production restrictions present a positive tailwind for seaborne demand.

According to SGX's 2016 Mid-Year Outlook Survey, a 55.30% of respondents believe LNG will be able to compete with coal on cost in Asia within the next 5 years. However, 44.70% respondents don’t believe LNG compete with Coal within next 5 years.

Dry Bulk Freight
The Baltic Dry Index ended H1 2016 up 38%, plunging to all-time record lows in February before rebounding through the second quarter, driven by larger vessel classes, commodities Mid-Year Reflections report of SGX says. In spite of improved freight rates, albeit from low levels, market participants appear to remain largely cautious.

According to SGX’s survey results, almost 80% of respondents anticipate no sustainable improvement in supply-demand fundamentals until 2018 at the earliest. In 2016, there is a consensus view of 3-5% of the global fleet being scrapped. Coupled with new supply growth, consensus indicates net dry bulk fleet growth of 0-3% in 2016. Views are particularly mixed over which vessel class has the strongest relative outlook in H2 2016, though with Capesize vessels coming out slightly ahead of the rest.

Freight –  market leader
SGX freight derivatives saw a transformational H1 2016 with volumes totalling a record 312,234 contracts during the period, an increase of 255% on the prior year, Open interest averaged 109,158 contracts in H1 2016, up over 277% year-on-year.

Global market share also saw a corresponding rise during the year, with SGX becoming the largest clearing house by volume in H1 2016 for dry bulk freight derivatives.

In addition to substantial growth in volumes, open interest and number of participants, other developments in the past six months included (1) futurisation of the P2A, P3A and C5 voyage routes; (2) narrowing of strike intervals for all freight options on-swap contracts; and (3) extension of options series on time charter average contracts to five full calendar years.


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