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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. &n ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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