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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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