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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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