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Tuesday, 28 June 16
CHINA'S IRON ORE IMPORTS: HOW MUCH MORE WORK FOR CAPES? - CLARKSONS
 Chinese iron ore imports account for around two thirds of global seaborne iron ore shipments, making it the key driver of Capesize employment. While the hike in Chinese iron ore imports in the year to date has supported Capesize demand, there is great uncertainty over the sustainability of the growth in 2H 2016, the distribution of trade across different routes and the overall impact on Capesize requirement.
Opportunities For Capes?
Chinese seaborne iron ore imports grew 6.6% y-o-y to 321mt in January to April 2016, supported by firm growth in long-haul trade from Brazil. This helped to absorb some of the significant oversupply of Capesize tonnage. However, there is great uncertainty regarding continued growth in China’s housing market, steel production and stockpiling, highlighting the broad downside risks to the country’s iron ore imports in 2H 2016. As such, there are a wide range of scenarios for Chinese iron ore import growth in full year 2016, the breakdown of trade flows, and the overall impact on Capesize requirement.
A Long-Haul, Long-Shot?
In a ‘high case’ scenario, Chinese seaborne iron ore import growth is projected to continue at roughly the levels recorded in the year to date, with long-haul shipments from Brazil increasing 21% in the full year, providing a significant boost to tonne-mile trade growth. In this scenario, Chinese iron ore imports from Australia and ‘Other’ exporters continue to grow at 3% and 4%, respectively. Overall, in these circumstances theoretical Capesize requirement would be boosted by an estimated 10.6m dwt (on the basis of standard vessel and voyage assumptions), equivalent to 3.4% of the start 2016 fleet.
A More Likely Scenario
However, there are broad expectations for easing Chinese construction activity and steel consumption in 2H 2016. A ‘base case’ scenario factors in these downside risks, with 0% y-o-y growth in Chinese iron ore imports projected in 2H 2016 and 3.8% in the full year. In this scenario, growth in Chinese iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil is more balanced, giving less weight to long-haul trade than in the ‘high case’. Under these circumstances, Capesize requirement would rise by around 6m dwt, equating to 1.8% of the fleet.
A Potential Turn For The Worse
In a more negative scenario, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil remain static, while exports from ‘Others’ drop by 9%. Overall, a downturn in the country’s property market and significant cuts to steel output in 2H 2016 contribute to Chinese seaborne iron ore import demand dropping 1.4% in full year 2016. This would reduce Capesize requirement by around 1.3m dwt, or 0.4% of the fleet.
So, as the ‘base case’ seems the most likely of the scenarios, given the firm start to the year, and the Capesize fleet is expected to contract by 0.4% in 2016, China could be providing some positive news for owners. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains. Clearly, trends in 2H 2016 will be watched closely, given the central role that Chinese iron ore import growth still plays for Capesize requirement.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES ROSE ON RENEWED DEMAND FROM CHINA
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.66 percent week over week to averaging $39.65 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 27 June 16
LATEST NEWS ON BIMCO'S CONTRACTS AND CLAUSES
BIMCO is currently updating several of its most widely used charter parties including SUPPLYTIME and BARECON. New developments include the Standard ...
Monday, 27 June 16
BREXIT RESULT COULD SEE UK FACING AN EXODUS OF MARITIME TALENT - FASTSTREAM
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has the potential to drive many of its maritime employees away, according to the results of a survey issued ...
Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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