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Monday, 13 June 16
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES COULD PROVIDE FUTURE BOOST FOR SHIP OWNERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxWhen it comes to the dry bulk market, shipowners these days are looking for news in any shape or form they can find them. However, as the discussion over the market’s future prospects is being dominated by the obvious tonnage oversupply, things could very well start to show modest signs of improvement in the demand-side of the market as well.

Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean said in its latest quarterly report that “China’s official GDP growth slowed to 6.7% in the first quarter of 2016. In the new five-year plan announced in China in March the target for annual GDP growth during the next five years was set to 6.5%. This is the first time that the target set has been higher than the consensus estimate from various analysts. Although the Chinese authorities are focused on growth from “softer” sectors like services, they still say that no goals should jeopardize social stability or economical prosperity. This could bode for some additional investments in infrastructure projects and fixed asset investments if growth is not kept at an acceptable pace. Moreover, control of infrastructure projects have been taken back centrally to Beijing. March statistics for China showed better economic outlook, as both growth in fixed asset and infrastructure investments as well as new loans all showed signs of improvement. Growth in fixed asset investments picked up from the low in the past three months to 11.2%, the highest since July last year, and growth in infrastructure investments has been on a downward trend in the last two years and dropped to a multi-year low of 8.6% in December last year but ramped up to 22.5% in March. Whether the recovery of growth will remain is of course the big question”, said the shipowner.

Golden Ocean added that “when looking at the various main commodities transported, all of them had a slow start to the year. With low commodity prices and forward curves in backwardation, building down inventories has been preferred to importing new volumes. Imports of coal to China were very low at the beginning of the year at around 13 mt per month, but picked up in March to 19 mt per month, which annualized is at around the same levels as last year. There are some signs of stability, and as many Chinese mines are closing down and imports are a small part of the total volumes, in the shorter term there could also be some upside potential on these numbers. India has had a high local output on coal and also has around 25 days of inventories available and has disappointed those that were most optimistic on India’s substitution of Chinese demand”.

Meanwhile, “grain has been very strong in the first quarter of 2016 with an increase in transported volume of 13% year on-year. In particular long haul distances with exports from Brazil and Argentina has increased massively in the quarter, and this also led to increased waiting times in the ports, while other shorter haul distances have been reduced. The increase in transportation is mainly driven by imports to China. For other minor bulks there has also been an increase in volumes, and for bauxite also in ton miles. Steel products have also stabilized around the levels from last year and these commodities balance the drop in coal and iron ore. With global GDP growth expected to be just above 3% for the next coming years steel production is likely to remain flat. At the same time, the replacement between local Chinese iron ore and imports is still continuing, although at the moment the local production is around 200 mt (62% Fe equivalent) compared to total import in 2015 of 953 mt. Most analysts still believe in slight increase in imported volumes. The larger miners have adjusted down their volumes based on the low prices seen earlier this year, but it is expected that Vale will take a larger portion for the remainder of the year, adding ton mile”, said Golden Ocean.

It concluded by noting that “utilization during the first quarter of 2016 was estimated to be around 78% for the dry bulk fleet overall, with Capesize utilization lower during the worst periods of the quarter. Should the current market environment continue and demand growing at the slow pace as most analysts believe, at the same time as deliveries are postponed or cancelled and scrapping keeps up, utilization will improve slowly over the coming years”.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News


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