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Wednesday, 25 May 16
DRY BULK SNP MARKET DISPLAYS SIGNS OF STRENGTH - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
IntermodalOnly a couple of weeks away from the world’s most prominent maritime event, the market for tankers displays an evident lack of confidence in regards to future prospects, hence buying interest remains particularly reserved. The number of inspections that takes place at the moment is fairly limited, while comparing recent sales of VLCC tonnage to similar sales that took place towards the end of last year, we see that prices are roughly 15% down. With the exception of a few specific deals involving VLCC and Suezmax tonnage, buying interest over in the tanker sector mostly focuses on MR vessels, particularly those units controlled by financiers, while except from the lack of confidence, another major issue that weighs down on SnP activity is the big gap between price levels offered by Buyers and those that are accepted by the Sellers.

Moving on to the demolition market, prices here are also pointing down. At the same time, demo buyers are also becoming more and more reserved in their bids, while despite the fact that prices offered at the moment are without a doubt improved compared to the $220/ldt levels that the market witnessed back in February, we believe that the stability can only be achieved after budget announcements, scheduled in June, take place.

At the same time, the dry bulk SnP market displays signs of strength, with buying interest focusing mainly on Supramax and Kamsarmax tonnage built during the last decade. A representative example of this recent momentum in the market is the M/V UNITED TREASURE (82kdwt blt 06 Japan), which was inspected by more or less fifteen (!) buyers. The healthier freight market, combined with improved psychology and of course the aforementioned firming appetite by Buyers, have provided support to asset prices for vessels close to 10 years of age. We calculate this increase in the region of 15%-20% compared to price ideas for similar vessels back in the beginning of the spring season.

Similarly, buyers are also looking with increased interest tonnage built around the end of the 90’s up to the early 00’s, something that we hadn’t seen in a while as the majority of sales was mainly focusing on modern tonnage up until recently. It is mainly ships of 40,000dwt and above that are enjoying this renewed interest for older tonnage and as a result the values of these vessels have also firmed despite the fact that scrap prices offered today are $20/ldt lower than what they were a few weeks ago.

To put things in perspective, a 2000 built Handymax with SS/DD passed was sold at around USD2.9m sometime in the beginning of March and a similar ship today could easily fetch USD3.5m or more, which translates to a 21% increase. Another positive sign that comes to reinforce this reserved optimism of late is that during the past few months the number of ships sold for scrap has been particularly firm while at the same time newbuilding activity remains almost non-existent. Despite the fact that earnings have still a long way to go before reaching levels at which owners can feel less challenged, the reality is that all the developments above are displaying clearly that the market is moving towards more balanced fundamentals as the size of the size fleet is slowly getting “under control”. Given of course that global growth and consequently trade growth still face numerous challenges, it is imperative that we see more scrapping activity for longer before things balance out.

Let’s hope that the reserved optimism in the dry bulk market is not exaggerated and that the market manages to move to healthier and more viable levels sooner rather than later.
By George Iliopoulos 
SnP Broker

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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