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Monday, 23 May 16
A PERFECT STORM FOR INDONESIAN STEAM COAL EXPORTS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
ClarksonIndonesia is the world’s leading steam coal exporter, accounting for over 40% of global seaborne steam coal exports since 2010. However in 2015, the country’s steam coal shipments dropped 10%, due to sliding Asian thermal coal import demand, slumping coal spot prices and a series of domestic disruptions. While steps are being taken to try to weather the storm this year, the outlook remains challenging, says Clarkson Research Services Limited in its latest research report.

Troubled Waters
According to Clarkson Research Services Limited, Indonesia’s coal industry is highly fragmented and produces relatively low-quality coal, mostly shipped to Asian markets. In 2015, the country’s steam coal exports dropped to a four-year low of 366mt, with few indications of a recovery this year, largely due to declining import demand in the key Asian importing nations.

Asian Imports Sliding
Clarkson Research Services Limited further reported that, India has recently provided a crucial source of steam coal import demand for Indonesian miners. However in 2015, India’s firm domestic steam coal output contributed to an 8% drop in Indonesia’s steam coal exports to the country, to 123mt. This decline accelerated in early 2016, with Indonesian shipments to India falling 23% y-o-y in January-February.

Easing Chinese power generation growth and measures to reduce air pollution saw Indonesian steam coal exports to China fall 30% to 36mt in 2015. Clarkson Research Services Limited further noted that, While Indonesia’s exports to China have stabilized in recent months, the country’s import demand is expected to slump in full-year 2016. Finally, Indonesian steam coal exports to ‘other’ countries fell 8% in 2015 to 206mt, with growing shipments to developing Asian countries offset by a drop in exports to many developed Asian nations, such as South Korea and Taiwan.

Plunging Prices
Weak Asian coal import demand contributed to a significant drop in coal prices in 2015, forcing Indonesian coal miners to cut around 70mt of output. By April 2016, the Indonesian CFR steam coal spot price (4,900kcal NAR) had fallen to $42/t, down 27% y-o-y. Reports indicate that between 70-90% of Indonesian coal miners are currently operating at a loss, which is likely to result in further significant cuts to output in 2016.

Disorder On Deck
Indonesian steam coal exports have also been hit by a number of domestic factors. Last year, forest fires in Sumatra forced producers to suspend output, coinciding with a crackdown on illegal coal mining, which produces 50-90mt annually. In recent months, a series of piracy incidents forced the suspension of shipments from Kalimantan, although Jakarta has since responded by ramping up naval patrols. Further attempts to support Indonesia’s coal industry include the abandonment of a proposed hike in royalties and investment in domestic thermal power plants.

Overall, global seaborne steam coal trade is expected to drop for the second consecutive year in 2016, by 2%, due largely to weak Asian import demand. This, combined with depressed coal prices and domestic disruptions is expected to result in a 6% decline in Indonesian steam coal shipments this year. For the world’s leading steam coal exporter, the storm shows little sign of passing yet.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited


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