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Wednesday, 11 May 16
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
IntermodalOn Saturday 7th May, Riyadh replaced the long-serving oil minister of more than two decades, Ali-Al-Naimi, as part of a major government overhaul, which comes at a time that the realm faces a fall in energy revenues. Furthermore, last month the Kingdom reported the already premeditated economic reforms to decrease its reliance on oil and develop a long-term sustainable expansion, with arrangements for a monstrous $2 trillion fund to lift its worldwide investment power plan.

Particularly, the implementation of the named “Vision 2030” plan visualizes the country to operate without its major dependence on oil income by 2030. As announced, the plan encompasses the expansion of the realm’s tourism industry, developing the capacity of its military industries, reducing sponsorships to save money, generating job initiatives while restructuring its education system and establishing a Green Card-style residency system for Arabs.

Moreover, the setting up of the Public Investment fund of $2 trillion includes the $100bn that are expected to be raised from Saudi Aramco’s Initial Public Offering (the biggest IPO in history), with Prince Mohammed Bin Salman stating that the Saudi addiction to oil has disrupted the development of many sectors in previous years. As a result, the Kingdom aims to gain exposure to international markets and thus attract investments in all aspects of its economy with greater transparency.

Saudi Arabia’s new vision 2030, being ambitious and comprising of diversified policies reflects a long term initiative for economic progresses that have gained grounds from low oil prices and new-generation leadership. Gulf countries have been developing similar policies for years with Bahrain publishing its vision 2030 in 2008 and Abu Dhabi issuing one in 2009, both led by princes who wanted to associate themselves with economic transformation and collective consciousness. The April’s meeting and discussion of oil-rich countries in Doha for a production freeze in order to boost oil prices, led to no-agreement as Iran declared an  increase on its output. Alongside, it was just about a year and a half ago that Ali-al-Naimi urged OPEC to maintain output, rather than reduce production and support oil prices. Effectively higher cost producers were squeezed, mainly shale oil drillers. Similarly, Saudi Arabia itself has suffered an incredible loss by foreign-exchange reserves dropping and economic growth slowing.

Inevitably, the above measures will likely lead to the most radical transformation of the kingdom since its establishment in 1932. The plan itself is the evidence of the seriousness with which the authorities are taking the effects of squeezed oil prices on the economy and consequently the socio-political impact that has shaped the state-society relations. The world’s energy map is being revamped as global growth slows down. Iran’s reintegration is shifting the regional strategic dynamics. Saudi Arabia, long familiar to being the leading player in the area, must adapt to these changes.

Consequently, the Kingdom’s strong presence in crude oil and oil product markets affects the demand for oil tankers, the world’s primary oil transportation. Therefore, “Vision 2030”, which aims at less dependence on petrodollar income and further diversified domestic and global investments, may be the result of possible pessimistic expectations about further oil-driven world growth and it could even be the signal for even lower oil prices in the future. What would be the effects on the notoriously volatile shipping industry? It remains to be seen. 
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations

Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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