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Monday, 09 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS STEADY PROGRESS MOVING FORWARD ON THE BACK OF GROWING TRADE VOLUMES - BIMCO
 In its latest short-term analysis of the shipping markets, BIMCO reiterated its optimism on the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. According to BIMCO, transported volumes are expected to grow slowly – as they seasonally do – from the first quarter into the second. This ought to underpin the freight market.
“Notably, we expect a new record volume of combined grain and soybean exports this year from Argentina and Brazil. We do not anticipate a massive rise in freight rates for handysize, supramax and panamaxes on the back of this, as ships are already waiting around the main loading areas. Nevertheless, it should give a boost in confidence, a confidence that Moore Stephens in March assessed to be at a record low”, said BIMCO’s report.
Another positive indication of China not being as vulnerable as some may believe, which is supporting the soft landing trajectory, is the improving domestic steel prices, seen since mid-February. In the international markets, spot iron ore prices have also rebounded from USD 41 per MT at the beginning of 2016 to see USD 56 per MT in mid-April. Very different from the peaks of the past, but a positive indicator in the midst of all this surrounding uncertainty.
“We are still worried about the sustainability of freight rates in the years to come. Our main worry is that demolition activity will slow down as the BDI improves. If shipowners slow demolition of ships considerably, the fleet will keep growing. This will widen the fundamental imbalance further because we forecast the demand side to grow slowly in the coming years. In order to reverse several years of adding capacity in excess of demand growth, we need to develop a multi-year trend of negative fleet growth. BIMCO assess the current utilisation rate of the dry bulk fleet at the low end of the 70s”, said the report.
Looking further ahead, BIMCO noted that “coal imports into India may change. If the retained political vision of making India self-sufficient in thermal coal becomes reality. Surely the jury is still out on that. In November 2013 the then Indian Power Minister Goyal was “very confident”, when saying India may stop thermal coal imports in two to three years, as domestic production would increase. Mr. Goyal, now being India’s Energy Minister repeated the exactly the same words in April 2016. “We want to completely stop its import over the next two to three years”. India imported 171 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2015, slightly down from 176 million tonnes in 2014. SSY expects India to import 170 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2016”, it noted.
Supply
Meanwhile, “despite a record high volume of demolished dry bulk shipping capacity in the first three months of 2016, the total dry bulk fleet still grew. 16.7 million DWT of new capacity entered the fleet while 14 million DWT was sold for scrap. All in line with BIMCO’s forecast.
Not all of the dry bulk sub-segments saw an increase in fleet size. The capesize fleet, for instance, which has doubled over the past 6½ years, reduced in number (7 ships less) as well as capacity (-0.2%) in Q1-2016. For the full year, BIMCO holds unchanged expectations for deliveries and demolitions, which means we expect the fleet to grow by 1.1% or 10 million DWT in 2016. What has changed though from our January report is the slippage rate of deliveries, now at 50% up from 40%. Owners and investors are working hard to delay the delivery of new ships into a miserable freight market”, said the report.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand, “as deliveries offer traces of past optimism, most interestingly the appetite for signing new contracts for dry bulk ships at the world’s shipyards has ceased. Until the middle of March, only four new contracts had been signed, three at Japanese shipyards and one in China. During March and April, the long anticipated orders for 30 VLOCs with a capacity of 400,000 DWT each are now confirmed. Lifelong time charter contracts (27-years) appears to have been awarded to all of them already. This is the latest development that ties China and Vale closer to each other again, after their fallout following the disputes over the original batch of valemax VLOCs which were not allowed to call at Chinese ports for several years”.
He added that “without doubt this is bad news for international owners and operators. Each VLOC can carry an estimated 1.6m tons of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Baoshan, China per annum. This new batch of VLOCs, will remove 48 million tons of iron ore from the “open market”. As the current fleet of 34 VLOCs (2011-2015) already carries a total of 54.4m tons of cargo, the best front-haul leg in dry bulk shipping is crippled even further by this industrialisation of trade. In 2015, Brazil exported 191.6 million tons of iron ore to China; the existing and new valemax between them will be able to carry over half Brazil’s current annual iron ore exports. The 30 new VLOCs are due for delivery in 2018-2019”.
Demand
In terms of demand, BIMCO said that “on 10 February 2016, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hit 290. At that point, a bulk carrier regardless of its size, age and fuel-efficient qualities earned a time charter average of USD 2,417-2,776 per day. Whereas the three smaller segments have seen higher earnings since then, Capesize earnings lost ground up until the end of March. By mid-April, the gap closed and capesizes are back on par with the pack. Despite the fact that earnings have doubled in those two months, they remain below OPEX levels for the largest part of the fleet. Despite the many attempts by steel mills around the world to fend off Chinese steel from their home market, China’s steel export volumes did not fall significantly in January and February. Export dropped by just 1.6% to 17.85 million tonnes. New data for March showed exports of 10 million tonnes. In 2015, China flooded the world market as 112 million tons were exported, bringing down scrap steel prices in the wake of it.”
It added that “global crude steel production for January and February combined was 5.6% lower than in the same period of 2015, according to Worldsteel. Crude steel production in China was down 6.5% at the same time. The three key items to watch out for in 2016 are Chinese imports of coal and iron ore, as well as how much dry bulk tonnage is going to be demolished. Nothing else really matters to an extent that can either improve or damage the fundamentals of the dry bulk shipping market. In the midst of doom, gloom and uncertainty for shipbuilding, China’s combined imports of the two key commodities in the first two months fared better than we thought. The trouble is, however, that it did not bring decisive support to the freight market. Chinese iron ore imports grew by 6.4% to 155.8 million tonnes over the first two months versus this time a year ago. While coal imports to China fell by 10% to 28.8 million tonnes over the same period. New data for March … all positive. Chinese iron ore imports were 85.8 million tonnes, while coal imports rose to 19.7 million tonnes. The strong coal imports over March all but levelled out the drop in January and February. Q1 coal import growth was down by 1.2% year on year”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
Friday, 29 April 16
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN Q4' 15 DECLINED TO 2.7 MMST FROM 3 MMST IN Q3' 15
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.3 million short tons (mm ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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