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Wednesday, 20 April 16
2017 IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH BETTER YEAR FOR THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - INTERMODAL
IntermodalSome months ago we noted that all projections anticipated 2016 to be a better year from a macroeconomic point of view when compared to 2015. As we leave behind q1, evidence suggests that there are increasing chances that this is not going to be the case, with projections for global growth once again being revised downwards.

The latest estimate by the International Monetary Fund in April projects a modest 3.2% global growth for this year, 0.2% down from the January projection and just 0.1% higher that the estimated global growth for 2015. Once again the biggest part of this year’s world growth will come from the emerging economies, although they are not expected to grow at a much faster pace than they did in the year before with the economic slowdown in China and the weak growth both in oil and non-oil commodity exporters having their effect on the final projection estimates.

Moreover, the presence of several additional risks like further incidents of financial turbulence or a larger than anticipated adverse effect of lower oil prices on oil exporting countries and various other geopolitical risks including a possible Brexit, increase uncertainty over future economic developments and may lead to the realization of even weaker growth scenarios before the world economy picks up at a projected 3.5% growth in 2017.

With regards to global trade, which is of prime importance to the shipping industry, the latest evidence provided by the OECD suggests that its growth rate for 2016 will be weak along the projections for global growth. Overall things in the global economy draw a not very promising picture for the Dry Bulk sector in 2016 and despite the fact that during the last couple weeks we have moved away from the historically low levels we witnessed during the last part of 2105 and the first months of this year, things in the sector remain shaky as falling demand and weak growth prospects occur on the back of excess tonnage supply.

Given that things continue to steadily improve, 2017 is expected to be a much better year for the sector and the shipping industry overall. Saying that, we should all be patient and cautious as we have just left q1 and three more quarters are on their way before this year concludes.

By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations

Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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