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Monday, 18 April 16
SOUTH AFRICA RB1 COAL HAS LOST GROUND IN INDIA; RB2 MAY LOSE GRIP IF THE PRICE CROSSES US$ 50 A TON - TRADERS
Coal StockCOALspot.com: Indian coal consumers preferred to buy South Africa RB2 coal instead of RB1 coal recent months due to RB2's low CFR price level. According to an Indian coal trader, due to the pricing structure of RB2 coal, Indian consumers are preferred to stay with RB2 coal, the CFR price of RB2 coal is significantly lower compared to RB1 coal price. The RB1's high energy value is not supported to keep its market share in India and lost its majority of market share to RB2 coal.

However, the trader further noted that RB2 coal can enjoy its demand in India until the coal’s CFR price is able to compete with Indian washed coal of 4700 GAR energy. Sea Freight is also playing a significant role to keep South African RB2 coal competing in India. According to the trader, if RB2 coal's CFR price crosses US$ 50 per ton, the coal may lose demand in India as evaluated price of Indian washed coal will compete with RB2 on delivering basis.

Coal India, the single largest coal producer in the world, is now operating like a private coal miner and removing most of the hurdles that worked against buyers of Indian coal in the past, says a person familiar with the Indian domestic coal supplies. The coal India is now working with buyers of Its coal too closely and offering attractive terms to compete with imported coal. Recently Coal India has also removed premium that charged to buyers in the past if the buyer's requirement exceeds their allocation.

According to a trader, the quality of Indian washed coal is almost similar to RB2 coal except for energy value. When RB2 coal prices cross US$ 50 a ton, then the evaluated price of Indian washed coal will compete head-to-head with RB2 coal in Indian domestic market. The Cement producers. whose factories are closer to the Indian coal belts, considering switching part of their requirements to Indian washed coal from RB2 coal because the CFR price of RB2 coal is now touching US$ 50 a ton. However, he also pointed that, RB2 coal's demand will not be dried up like RB1 coal and the demand for RB2 coal may reduce from the current level.

RB2 coal's CFR prices were around US$ 44 per ton end of 2015, however, the price of RB2 coal now at (slightly below) US$ 50 per ton.

Commenting on Australian coal supplies to India, another trader said that, the Australian coal is having good demand and reception in Indian market. However, due to uncertainty of arrival of cargo within agreed lay-can, Indian end-users are reluctant to consider Australian coal compare to Indonesian or South African coal. Past few months, some of Australian coal shipments were failed to arrive at discharging ports within the agreed lay-can due to congestion in Australian coal exporting ports.

Indian private sector coal demands were flat or up slightly, but the public sector demands were falling, Indian domestic coal replacing Imported coal in the Public sector.

The demand of Imported coal in India in the second half of this year may fall slightly compared to previous years due to high output from coal India, wind power & hydro energy. However, the CFR price of imported coal will also play a significant role to decide the direction of demand for imported coal in India.

Hydroelectric power in India, according to Wikipedia, the present installed capacity as of February 2016 is 42,663 MW, which is 15.22% of total electricity generation in India. India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday (12 April) released southwest monsoon forecast for 2016 and said that 94 per cent of more than excess to heavy rainfall is predicted for this year. According to IMD, this year monsoon will be above normal. More or less, Monsoon 2016 is expected to be good.

Wind power accounts nearly 8.5% of India's total installed power generation capacity and generated 28,214 million Kwh (MU) in the fiscal year 2014-15 which is nearly 2.6% of total electricity generation, says Wikipedia. The capacity utilization factor is nearly 15 % in the fiscal year 2014-15. 70% of wind generation is from May to September, coinciding with South West monsoon duration.


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