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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 27 April 16
INDONESIAN COAL MINER KIDECO REPORTED NET PROFIT OF US$138.1 MILLION IN 2015
COALspot.com: Kideco Jaya Agung, one of the Indonesia's leading coal miners has reported net profit of US$138.1 million on revenue of US$1.65 b ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
INDONESIA BANNED COAL EXPORTS TO PHILIPPINES BY BARGES DUE TO SECURITY CONCERN
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on behalf of the government of Indonesia has Freeze coal exports by barges to Phi ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
NEWBUILDING DEMAND DOWN EVERYWHERE? - CLARKSONS
Newbuild activity provides one indication of an owner country’s likely future fleet growth, though secondhand sale and purchase and demolitio ...
Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elev ...
Monday, 25 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDICES END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $38.67 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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