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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 27 April 16
INDONESIAN COAL MINER KIDECO REPORTED NET PROFIT OF US$138.1 MILLION IN 2015
COALspot.com: Kideco Jaya Agung, one of the Indonesia's leading coal miners has reported net profit of US$138.1 million on revenue of US$1.65 b ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
INDONESIA BANNED COAL EXPORTS TO PHILIPPINES BY BARGES DUE TO SECURITY CONCERN
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on behalf of the government of Indonesia has Freeze coal exports by barges to Phi ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
NEWBUILDING DEMAND DOWN EVERYWHERE? - CLARKSONS
Newbuild activity provides one indication of an owner country’s likely future fleet growth, though secondhand sale and purchase and demolitio ...
Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elev ...
Monday, 25 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDICES END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $38.67 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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