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Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. The government earlier this year said it aimed to eliminate 100 million to 150 million tonnes of capacity by 2020. The complete elimination of these capacities will likely result in significant job losses in the labour-intensive sector and huge financial losses, given the highly levered nature of most companies in the industry.

We believe that unless specific actions are taken to address these challenges, rapid capacity elimination in the Chinese steel sector is unlikely. This would in turn mean prices are likely to remain low, resulting in higher liquidity and default risks for steelmakers, many of which expanded rapidly since 2012 funded by short-term debt.

Based on industry productivity norms of 300 tonnes of steel per year per employee in China, elimination of 150 million tonnes of capacity would mean the loss of around 500,000 jobs in the industry, and potentially more in ancillary industries. This number may not appear large relative to China's working population, but the steel industry tends to by highly geographically concentrated. Layoffs in regions where steelmakers are large employers could result in prolonged dampening of related industries such transportation, power generation, and even retail.

Furthermore, the sector is highly financially levered, with the average debt-to-asset ratio at more than 70%. We estimate the industry has total debt of CNY3trn-4trn, excluding upstream funding through payables and unpaid staff costs. Out of this debt, one third is in the form of bank loans. Even the shutdown of 100 million tonnes of capacity, a reduction of less than10% of existing capacity, could significantly hurt lenders.


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