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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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