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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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