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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 07 November 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ROSE 59.57 PER CENT YEAR TO MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2013. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 07 November 16
HANDYSIZE: THE ASIAN INDICES RECORDED A GRADUAL DROP EVERY DAY - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A rumour-fuelled market this week but essentially rates a touch firmer and owners cautiously optimistic. The flotilla of vessels heading ...
Monday, 07 November 16
THE SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WERE RATING AT AROUND $7500-8000 A DAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose slightly and ending in a positive note this past wee ...
Friday, 04 November 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
Friday, 04 November 16
INDONESIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ARE UNANIMOUSLY AFFIRMED
Press Release: October 20-21, 2016 Indonesia Infrastructure Summit (IIC) opened at the Hyatt Hotel in Jakarta The theme of the meeting was "Pr ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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