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Wednesday, 16 March 16
OIL SUPPLY OUTPACES DEMAND ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AND BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL ARE BEING STORED RATHER THAN CONSUMED - CHRISTOPHER
 Oil producers have turned to the concept of limiting their output to January levels as a certain form of action to boost prices that have fallen more than 70% since the middle of 2014. Oil supply outpaces demand on any given day, and billions of barrels of oil are being stored rather than consumed. As a result, oil prices have collapsed to as low as $26 per barrel in February, from well over $100 in 2014.
It is interesting that currently, Iran and Iraq both play an important role in the contemplated production freeze. Iran has already been increasing production and the country’s position is that it would consider oil-production caps only after the country’s output rises back to the levels before the West imposed sanctions over its nuclear program.
Basically Iran wants to increase production now, in an attempt to revive their share in the global markets, before they even consider discussing about participating in an output freeze. Iraq also has a longstanding policy of seeking to raise production regardless of the price-stabilizing policies of the OPEC.
Russia said that OPEC’s meeting with other key oil producers regarding an output freeze will probably be held in Doha, Qatar in April. They said that Iran supports the plan, while Tehran says it wants to double its crude exports to 4 million bpd first.
However, in reality according to the latest oil market data, both Russia and Saudi Arabia ramped up their oil production in February, despite talks about supply caps. Russian oil supply reached a new high of 11.08 million barrels a day in February, and Saudi Arabia during the same month increased its daily output by 14,000 barrels, to 10.14 million barrels per day, according to OPEC's analysis of market sources.
Generally speaking, countries are less willing to freeze and especially to cut production, because doing so means giving up market share for their oil, which might be hard to win back especially during this transition period. The four major oil powers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar, are heavily involved in the various discussions and the coordinated efforts will probably include soon also non OPEC countries such as Oman, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Assuming all are on board, the oil glut could begin to ease, particularly with American output on the decline. Or at least that is what they anticipate with this concept.
The fact is that a two million barrel-per-day surplus in oil supplies will continue to weigh on prices in the short term and even if these countries freeze output, they would still need more drastic efforts to support prices in the long term.
From my own perspective, it looks like their ultimate goal is to reach a certain consensus and, if they actually get there, I would expect them to quickly focus on actually reducing production in the long term. In any case, analysts estimate that maintaining production at current levels will probably not have a significant effect on prices.
Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager - Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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