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Wednesday, 16 March 16
OIL SUPPLY OUTPACES DEMAND ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AND BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL ARE BEING STORED RATHER THAN CONSUMED - CHRISTOPHER
 Oil producers have turned to the concept of limiting their output to January levels as a certain form of action to boost prices that have fallen more than 70% since the middle of 2014. Oil supply outpaces demand on any given day, and billions of barrels of oil are being stored rather than consumed. As a result, oil prices have collapsed to as low as $26 per barrel in February, from well over $100 in 2014.
It is interesting that currently, Iran and Iraq both play an important role in the contemplated production freeze. Iran has already been increasing production and the country’s position is that it would consider oil-production caps only after the country’s output rises back to the levels before the West imposed sanctions over its nuclear program.
Basically Iran wants to increase production now, in an attempt to revive their share in the global markets, before they even consider discussing about participating in an output freeze. Iraq also has a longstanding policy of seeking to raise production regardless of the price-stabilizing policies of the OPEC.
Russia said that OPEC’s meeting with other key oil producers regarding an output freeze will probably be held in Doha, Qatar in April. They said that Iran supports the plan, while Tehran says it wants to double its crude exports to 4 million bpd first.
However, in reality according to the latest oil market data, both Russia and Saudi Arabia ramped up their oil production in February, despite talks about supply caps. Russian oil supply reached a new high of 11.08 million barrels a day in February, and Saudi Arabia during the same month increased its daily output by 14,000 barrels, to 10.14 million barrels per day, according to OPEC's analysis of market sources.
Generally speaking, countries are less willing to freeze and especially to cut production, because doing so means giving up market share for their oil, which might be hard to win back especially during this transition period. The four major oil powers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar, are heavily involved in the various discussions and the coordinated efforts will probably include soon also non OPEC countries such as Oman, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Assuming all are on board, the oil glut could begin to ease, particularly with American output on the decline. Or at least that is what they anticipate with this concept.
The fact is that a two million barrel-per-day surplus in oil supplies will continue to weigh on prices in the short term and even if these countries freeze output, they would still need more drastic efforts to support prices in the long term.
From my own perspective, it looks like their ultimate goal is to reach a certain consensus and, if they actually get there, I would expect them to quickly focus on actually reducing production in the long term. In any case, analysts estimate that maintaining production at current levels will probably not have a significant effect on prices.
Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager - Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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