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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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