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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
 The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% in 2010 to just over 2% in 2015. In the short-term, fleet expansion is currently projected to slow further, but with only limited growth expected in dry bulk trade in coming years, can supply growth be brought back in line with expansion in demand?
Stunting The Growth
The depression in the dry bulk market, driven by weak demand and firm supply growth in preceding years, saw bulker owners scrap over 30m dwt in 2015, close to the record of 33m dwt in 2012. Meanwhile, deliveries remained fairly steady y-o-y at 49m dwt, down from 100m dwt in 2012. Estimated ‘non-delivery’ (the percentage of the start year orderbook scheduled for delivery during the year, but not delivered due to ‘slippage’ or cancellation) rose last year to 43%, up from an estimated 36% in 2014, limiting delivery volumes. Overall, these trends saw the pace of fleet growth shrink to 2.4%, the slowest rate since 1999. However, even this slow growth exacerbated oversupply, with seaborne dry bulk trade declining by 0.1% in 2015.
Out With The Not-So-Old
Bulkcarrier demolition is projected to remain firm this year, given the weak outlook for the market. There remains a sizeable volume (62.4m dwt) of bulkcarrier tonnage aged over 20 years, and owners have also shown a willingness to scrap increasingly younger units, with the average age of scrapped bulkers falling from 32 years in 2010 to 25 years in 2015. In the first eight weeks of 2016 alone, 93 units of 8.3m dwt were scrapped, up 77% y-o-y on an annualised basis, and demolition is currently projected to exceed 33m dwt this year.
Deliveries To Dive?
Despite the depressed market conditions, and expectations that slippage and cancellation will continue to significantly affect deliveries, a total of 49m dwt is again expected to be delivered in 2016. However, the more limited ordering volumes seen in 2014-15 have helped the orderbook to decrease, reaching an 8-year low in February 2016, and deliveries are now expected to drop in 2017 to 35m dwt.
How Low Do We Need To Go?
Overall, the gap between bulkcarrier deliveries and demolition is currently expected to remain fairly steady this year, with fleet growth projected to reach 2.0%. However, with dry bulk trade growth expected to be very limited at 0.3% in 2016, to restrict fleet expansion to this pace would require the equivalent of either deliveries easing to 36m dwt this year, 27% lower than the current projection, or demolition surging to 47m dwt, 40% higher than the current projection.
So, unless there are dramatic shifts in supply side trends in the rest of this year, it will be difficult to limit the pace of fleet expansion in 2016 to a level closer to dry bulk trade growth. There seems more scope for this in 2017, given current expectations for expansion of only 0.7% in the fleet. However, with dry bulk trade underperforming, even such a slow pace of fleet growth expected in the short-term might struggle to restore balance.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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