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Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxThe injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would be the case, i.e. ordering more ships than the market needed to cater to demand. As a result, returns have plummeted, leaving many funds looking for a way out, most notably the dry bulk market, as tanker owners are still protected from the downturn. In its latest report, Gibson noted that “undoubtedly 2015 was a memorable year. For some a year to forget for tankers a year to enjoy. Whilst the misery has continued for many, tankers are still generating healthy returns a cross most sectors, in part aided by cheap bunker prices. However, sentiment, particularly in the tanker time charter market has certainly taken a hit as of late as the global economic outlook becomes increasingly bearish”.

According to Gibson’s analysis, global stock markets have witnessed a terrible start with the China led malaise wiping billions off investments across the globe, unsettling the nerves of many investors, which perhaps explains the loss of appetite for long term commitments. It may be the view of some wealth managers mantra that the economy remains on track but it is difficult for many to stay calm when your investments have dropped in value by 15 to 20 per cent since April 2015. Furthermore after the initial boost of low oil prices, much concern is now focused on the health of the major producers who have expensed vast sums of foreign cash reserves in the face of falling oil prices”.

The shipbroker also noted that “back in August 2014, we highlighted the growing role of private equity in the shipping sector as the involvement of major banks gradually faded from its peak in 2007. We speculated that at least $7 billion would come from this sector in 2014 which was still a drop in the ocean in their overall portfolios. Wilbur Ross estimated that private equity pumped $16 billion into shipping between 2008 and 2013 – two and a half times the amount generated through initial public offerings”.

Meanwhile, “whilst the tanker sector has so far escaped the horrors of dry cargo, there is no longer the hunger of investors to continue their involvement with shipping, as the overall performance of these investments has not fulfilled expectations and they are looking for a swift exit. We argued back in 2014 that the activity was being driven by “other people’s money “ without sufficient restraints which can result in over ordering and this has certainly been a factor. As a result of that activity, several larger private equity groups that invested in shipping in the past, have decided to cut their losses and sell. Investment funds and banks do not want to be shipowners, trying to sell off unwanted assets where the buyers have the upper hand”, Gibson said.

It went on to note “whilst many traditional shipping banks continue to wind down their shipping portfolios, other banks have signalled an intention to increase their presence in the sector with China’s CMB Financial Leasing looking to increase shipping and aviation from 12% of its existing book to 25-40%. This points towards conventional banks playing more of a role once again in ship finance, yet it may not be the traditional European banks fulfilling this role”.

Gibson said though, that “there is a great deal of pain at the moment but this will be seen by some shipowners in a positive light going forward, where realistic ship ping constraints return t o investment decisions, preventing the mass ordering of unwanted new buildings that we have seen from some of the recently funded players from private equity. There is no question that this scenario will put an enormous strain on shipyards who will need to be able to offer financing such as we have seen from Chinese banks and the Export credit agencies in other Asian shipbuilding nations. However their biggest problem is that the market has more than enough ships to meet demand and shipbuilders are struggling to fill their forward slots. This sort of market brings the cash buyer to the fore and there are clear signs that they are focusing in on the opportunities that are being presented. In the dry sector as prices plummet, the traditional second hand cash buyers are becoming increasingly visible. For now tanker owners remain very much protected by the continued healthy state of the market, but we should take nothing for granted as we will encounter more challenges as we progress through 2016”, the shipbroker concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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