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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
 The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substantial period of time, has now everyone wondering; how long can it last and what are those developments that could expedite the recovery.
According to our data for vessels above 20,000dwt, 2016 deliveries amount to 887 vessels, a scary number indeed even if one takes into account expected slippage. On the balancing side is of course demolition activity. A little less than 400 vessels were sent for scrap last year, while in the first six weeks of 2016 alone we count 83 demo sales. If scrapping activity for the rest of the year continues at this pace, demolition activity this year will easily top 2015.
Every single market participant is now anxious to see how rates will behave once the Chinese New Year festivities are over. At the same time, fundamentals for the big bulkers, the trade of which is closely tight to China, remain challenging. Chinese iron ore imports, despite reaching record levels, have been unable to help Capesize rates, while coal imports to the country are still pointing to a strong trend of declining consumption.
Lay-ups, an extreme thought not too long ago, have now become an everyday topic amongst owners. We also observe on a weekly basis that the number of 15yrs old vessels available for sale increases, while their owners are now more at ease with the idea of even selling them for scrap. Asset prices have naturally been plunging. Below are some representative example of the sharp fall.
Capesize
The “Nordtramp” - 170k dwt blt 2001 Koyo, Japan was sold last year at $17.1m, while the “Kohyohsan” - 172k dwt blt 2001 NKK, Japan was sold recently at $5.0m. Moreover, this summer we saw the “Churchill Bulker” - 179k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea committed in August at $37.0m, eventually failing and being sold three months later at $28.5m, 23% less. Two weeks ago the “Obelix” 180k dwt blt 2011 Imabari, Japan, was reported sold at $23.5m. Since the beginning of 2016, 22 Capesize vessels have been sold for demo, while 21 have been delivered.
Panamax
The “Thalia” - 75k dwt blt 2001 Hitachi, Japan was sold twelve months ago at $9.5m, while last week the “Cymbeline” - 73k dwt blt 2001, Sumitomo, Japan was sold at $3.3m a decrease of about 65%. The “Unity Pride” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S.Korea was sold at $17.6m back in April 2015. At Christmas we saw the “Archimedes” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea being sold at $14.5m, failing and coming up for sale once again, with interested parties not willing to offer above $12.0m. Since the beginning of 2016 a number of 33 vessels have been sold for demo, while 30 have been delivered.
It is definitely the “buy low” phase of this cycle. This of course is something that naturally leaves owners striving to survive utterly indifferent at the moment and logically so. But for the more fortunate ones, with cash to support their investment for a reasonable time, the opportunity to renew their fleet is undeniable.
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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