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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
 The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substantial period of time, has now everyone wondering; how long can it last and what are those developments that could expedite the recovery.
According to our data for vessels above 20,000dwt, 2016 deliveries amount to 887 vessels, a scary number indeed even if one takes into account expected slippage. On the balancing side is of course demolition activity. A little less than 400 vessels were sent for scrap last year, while in the first six weeks of 2016 alone we count 83 demo sales. If scrapping activity for the rest of the year continues at this pace, demolition activity this year will easily top 2015.
Every single market participant is now anxious to see how rates will behave once the Chinese New Year festivities are over. At the same time, fundamentals for the big bulkers, the trade of which is closely tight to China, remain challenging. Chinese iron ore imports, despite reaching record levels, have been unable to help Capesize rates, while coal imports to the country are still pointing to a strong trend of declining consumption.
Lay-ups, an extreme thought not too long ago, have now become an everyday topic amongst owners. We also observe on a weekly basis that the number of 15yrs old vessels available for sale increases, while their owners are now more at ease with the idea of even selling them for scrap. Asset prices have naturally been plunging. Below are some representative example of the sharp fall.
Capesize
The “Nordtramp” - 170k dwt blt 2001 Koyo, Japan was sold last year at $17.1m, while the “Kohyohsan” - 172k dwt blt 2001 NKK, Japan was sold recently at $5.0m. Moreover, this summer we saw the “Churchill Bulker” - 179k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea committed in August at $37.0m, eventually failing and being sold three months later at $28.5m, 23% less. Two weeks ago the “Obelix” 180k dwt blt 2011 Imabari, Japan, was reported sold at $23.5m. Since the beginning of 2016, 22 Capesize vessels have been sold for demo, while 21 have been delivered.
Panamax
The “Thalia” - 75k dwt blt 2001 Hitachi, Japan was sold twelve months ago at $9.5m, while last week the “Cymbeline” - 73k dwt blt 2001, Sumitomo, Japan was sold at $3.3m a decrease of about 65%. The “Unity Pride” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S.Korea was sold at $17.6m back in April 2015. At Christmas we saw the “Archimedes” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea being sold at $14.5m, failing and coming up for sale once again, with interested parties not willing to offer above $12.0m. Since the beginning of 2016 a number of 33 vessels have been sold for demo, while 30 have been delivered.
It is definitely the “buy low” phase of this cycle. This of course is something that naturally leaves owners striving to survive utterly indifferent at the moment and logically so. But for the more fortunate ones, with cash to support their investment for a reasonable time, the opportunity to renew their fleet is undeniable.
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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