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Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
World BankCOALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank said in its Commodity Markets Outlook.

According to Commodity Markets Outlook, prices have fallen by more than 60 percent since the beginning of 2011 because of chronic oversupply and falling imports into China—the world’s largest consumer of coal—and India. Europe and United States continue to shun coal amidst a global drive towards cleaner energy, collapsing gas prices, and increasing power efficiency. Global coal supplies continue to increase aided by falling costs and depreciating producer currencies.

World Bank further noted that, China’s coal imports fell by one-third in 2015 due to slowing industrial activity, growing contributions from other sources to generate power, and government policies to limit coal use. China is suspending the approval of new mines for the next three years, and in an effort to reduce pollution coal’s share of energy consumption is to be reduced to 62.6 percent this year from 64.4 percent in 2015. In addition, rising capacity of China’s high-voltage long-distance power transmission network could suppress coastal import demand.

World Bank forecasted that, coal prices to decline 13 percent in 2016 to $50/ton, on continued weak demand and oversupply. The coal industry faces difficult market conditions, as cheap natural gas and policies that favor clean energy challenge coal’s position in the power sector.

Import demand in China is expected to continue falling, and will only partly be offset by rising demand in India and other emerging markets. Coal also faces declining consumption in the OECD, particularly in the U.S. and Europe.

Ample coal supplies are likely, in part because of the ramp-up in new capacity from earlier investment. There is also significant spare capacity in countries such as Indonesia and Australia that could be brought on-line concluded World bank in its Commodity Markets Outlook.
Source: World Bank Group. 2016. Commodity Markets Outlook, January. World Bank, Washington, DC. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO


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