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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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