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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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