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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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