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Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
German Coal Importers AssociationCOALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.

China bears the greatest responsibility for the decline; it reduced its coal imports by 73 million tonnes (over 30%) in support of its own coal mining industry. When the import duty of 6% on steam coal comes to an end in February 2016 because of the entry into force of the trade treaty with China, however, the export situation might brighten, at least for Australia, said German Coal Importers Association (VDKi) in its latest press release.

According to German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), the production of hard coal (coking coal and steam coal), reported as steady for more than a decade, has presumably not only come to a standstill, but is in fact declining for the first time.

The VDKi estimates that worldwide production decreased by about 150 million to 200 million tonnes to 7 billion tonnes and that the seaborne hard coal trade fell by 50 million tonnes to 1.12 billion tonnes.

- Output fell by 110 million tonnes in China and by 70 million tonnes in the USA.
- Australia and India were able to maintain respectively even increase significantly the level of production of steam coal.
- Indonesia was unable, for many different reasons, to continue the increase in the production of steam coal of previous years; instead, the output of hard coal and lignite was reduced by 11% to 408 million tonnes.

VDKi further noted that, a significant shifts are also becoming apparent within the exporting countries:

- Australia was able to maintain its exports of 386 million tonnes at a level comparable to the previous year while South Africa stayed at 76 million tonnes in exports. Russia raised its exports by 7 million tonnes (5%) to 150 million tonnes, and Colombia increased its exports by 2.5 million tonnes to 79 million tonnes. The devaluation of the Russian ruble and the Colombian peso played a supportive role here.

- On the other hand, preliminary figures of the VDKi showed that Indonesia reduced exports by 32 million tonnes to 325 million tonnes and the USA lowered its exports by 17 million tonnes (20%) to about 65 million tonnes.

With the exception of a short period of relief, VDKi says, the world market prices for hard coal continued their slide of the last five years.

Their high point of the last year was in February 2015, when prices for steam coal posted a little over US$63 per tonne CIF ARA, and the low point (for the moment) was in December (just under US$50). In the middle of December one year before, a tonne of steam coal cost US$72, about 30% more than today.

Prices for deliveries in February and March 2016 are already under US$50, the downward trend has continued in this year, concluded German Coal Importer Association


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